Usually in the 5th/6th round the big names and reliable producers start to become few and far between, it can get confusing. This is where I tend to make my mistakes on the players I select and usually end up paying for it as the season goes. When I get to this cluster of running backs, I never feel good about taking any of them, because they’re still relatively costly, and it’s hard to tell what you’re paying for.  I wanted to get a better understanding of each player’s situation so I can tell what exactly their value is.

Raheem Mostert – ADP 68, RB 29

Last year Mostert played 8 games due to three separate injuries, that’s right…three. An MCL sprain in week 2, then 2 separate high ankle sprains in weeks 6 and 15. In that time he ran the ball 104 times for 521 yards and 2 TDs, he also pulled in 16 balls on 19 targets and 1 TD. Raheem was a solid runner while on the field amassing 5 YPA. The key thing is the 8 missed games due to injury, which has been the story of the 29-year-olds career. Mostert has never been able to stay healthy and has gotten him on a short leash. The 49ers organization spent a 3rd round pick on ex Ohio state running back Trey Sermon who is favored to take over sooner rather than later this season. There’s a chance Raheem can fend off Sermon but it’s a very big gamble, one that I don’t see paying off.

Melvin Gordon – ADP 69, RB30

The Denver Broncos signed Gordon to a two-year, $16 million dollar contract last year, and moved on from Phillip Linsday this year. Although these two things make Gordon sound more appealing the organization also brought in a young stud RB in Javonte Williams. You would think a Big new contract would equal workload but last year that wasn’t the case. In 15 games Gordon rushed 215 times just missing the 1,000-yard mark while gathering 9 TDs, through the air Melvin was targeted 44 times and caught 32 for 158 yards and a TD. Phillip Lindsay stole 118 carries last year for 500 yards and a TD. It’s thought that Gordon will fill more of Lindsay’s old role this year with Williams taking the heavier side of the work.

James Robinson ADP 70, RB 31

This is a tough one because James Robinson has done everything right. He seized his opportunity last year with the Jags and absolutely delivered, if you had him on your fantasy team last year there’s a good chance you won a championship. The problem is that nothing is guaranteed this year for Robinson, with the arrival of Urban Myer and Trevor Lawrence the offense is going to play completely different. Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were added because Myer wanted to “add depth” to the position. Etienne is being looked at as a big breakout back this season which is forcing Robinsons ADP down in a big way. Last year Robinson took 87% of the carries last year, opportunity that’s unheard of in today’s game. He played 14 games last season and with that opportunity, he rushed 240 times for 1070 yards and 7 TDs and caught the ball 49 times on 60 targets for 3 TDs. Even with Etienne and Hyde being in the mix Robinson may not be a bad pickup at this price.

Michael Carter ADP 71, RB 32

One of the most exciting rookie running backs this year is Michael Carter. This guy has a Ton of upside and could have a huge breakout year. The Jets offense may not be the steaming pile that we’ve seen in recent years now that Adam Gase is out. Currently, he’s projected to have 154 carries for 645 yards and 3 touchdowns with 31 receptions and a receiving TD. The only man standing in Carter’s way is banged up Tevin Coleman who has missed a lot of time in the last two seasons. Carter has a ton of upside and is being looked at as the primary option in the offense. If he continues to impress at camp, he could be a great late-round value this year.

Well guys, we made it! Everything managed to work itself out after a season that looked like it could have been canceled before it even began. Before the first kick offs I wasn’t even getting my hopes up that there was going to be any NFL games this year, things looked very grim leading into the year and with all of the problems the NBA was having it didn’t look promising. We managed to limp our way through with honestly pretty minor hick ups and schedule changes. We luckily got a lot of great football and got to see some of the greats put on a show for their final snaps. My preseason prediction was a Chiefs- 49ers Super bowl, and the Tampa Bay experiment was more of a gimmick than anything in my eyes. Its honestly comical the amount of times I’ve counted Tom Brady out and hes made me look like a fool.. well I think this time I’ve finally learned my lesson.

The Tom Brady led Bucs have assembled an avengers level football team this year with studs all over the field itching for a championship. Out of everyone to ever play the game, I cant think of a more terrifying man to have to face off against with everything on the line than Brady. TB12 is the owner of some of the scariest stats of any player in NFL (enter any number of over spouted mind blowing Brady statistics). But Brady isnt the only player the Chiefs defense needs to worry about though, the team is loaded with studs in the skill positions like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Rob Gronkowski all of which are extremely talented players with a lot of experience under their belts.

The Kansas City Chiefs, led by the 500 million dollar man Pat Mahomes have one of the fastest and most electric offences the NFL has ever seen. The speed, explosiveness, raw athleticism, and football IQ of the Chiefs offence in particular creates matchup nightmares for all teams and Mahomes is always there to capitalize which makes this offence scream up and down the field. The thing about this offense is that you can be burned by anyone, anywhere, at any given time.

Both teams are horrifying in their own right and each have present some truly impressive stat lines. It should be nothing short of an exciting game. When the two teams battled in week 12, the Chiefs managed to edge out the Bucs 27-24 in an extremely tight game. Tampa Bays defense had no answer for Tyreek Hill who went for 269 yards. If Hill and Mahomes connect like they did in their previous meeting or Kelce continues his tear its going to be a very long night for the Bucs D. That will make Brady’s and the Bucs job an absolute nightmare, but the blitz heavy, outside pressing defense will give Brady a lot of chances to make big plays if the O line can hold up to the pressure.

It really feels like we are about to witness something special on February 7th, One of the greatest quarterbacks the league has ever seen going up against the most successful new comer we’ve ever seen. A QB that is being called the Greatest of all time, and one of the few young players that look like they could make a run at dethroning him in the future. The Bucs are the first team to ever play a superbowl on their own field but even with that advantage Vegas has the Cheifs as the 3 and a half point favorites. Given Toms age, this will likely be the first and last time these two clash on the greatest stage, and this game may be brought up for years to come if Mahomes continues at this level and enters the GOAT conversation. No matter the outcome this definitely isn’t the game to miss.

One of the hottest debates going on right now is one of Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack. Will Taylor take the starting job? How long could it take? Is Taylor worth a 4th or 5th round draft pick right now? Could we see a committee? Does Nyheim Hines threaten Taylors opportunity? There’s more questions than answers leading into the start of the season, and more importantly our fantasy drafts. Lets breakdown the info we have and see what we come up with.

I think we can agree that however this plays out, Indianapolis has to be thrilled with the current situation they find themselves in. Right now they have two extremely talented men that both are capable of being a top 15, maybe even a top 10 running back in the NFL this year, which is a lot more than a lot of teams can say. The Colts have one of (if not the best) offensive lines in the league this year, and two guys that are hungry and have a lot to prove. Nyheim Hines is also in Indy but handles the 3rd down duty’s and has his role clearly defined. The Colts drafted Taylor with their 2nd round pick in this years draft, and wouldn’t have done so if they didn’t plan to use him. The issue is that Marlon Mack is a stud in his own right and they both have a very similar running style, last year Mack carried the ball 240 times in 14 games and went for over 1000 yards. Unfortunately Mack has had some bad luck when it comes to staying healthy, in his 3 years in the NFL, he has missed 8 games and has quite the injury wrap sheet. Jonathon Taylor on the other hand is coming in fresh and boasts a wrap sheet of his own, his college accolades. Taylor’s most notable is probably being 6th on the all time rusher in NCAA history, and being the first player to ever rush for over 6,000 yards in a 3 year span. So could trust be fading in Mack based on his injury history? I think its entirely possible. The Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni was quoted saying the two make a good “one-two punch” which may mean some weeks of pure frustration for fantasy owners of both players.

Where does that leave us? In my opinion Jonathon Taylor and Marlon Mack are very similar players, only Jonathon Taylor is bigger, faster, and stronger, healthier, and younger. I do personally think Taylor will take the job from Mack but it may take time. I think Taylor will definitely have the starting role locked in by the end of the season, but his ADP has him floating somewhere around the 4th round which is steep considering. If you do decide to take him there you’re definitely taking a risk as his ADP is quite inflated, even if he takes the starting job we will still see Mack on the field taking carries quiet often. Personally I like Taylor a lot and have taken him in a few of my leagues where he has fallen to me. Its important to understand that he may not return value right away or at all though, and you shouldn’t be drafting him as such. Taylor is a gamble this year but I like the odds. I think the two will split snaps and both start off hot against the dumpster fire of a defense that Jacksonville has put together, but as time goes on Taylor will separate himself.