Usually in the 5th/6th round the big names and reliable producers start to become few and far between, it can get confusing. This is where I tend to make my mistakes on the players I select and usually end up paying for it as the season goes. When I get to this cluster of running backs, I never feel good about taking any of them, because they’re still relatively costly, and it’s hard to tell what you’re paying for.  I wanted to get a better understanding of each player’s situation so I can tell what exactly their value is.

Raheem Mostert – ADP 68, RB 29

Last year Mostert played 8 games due to three separate injuries, that’s right…three. An MCL sprain in week 2, then 2 separate high ankle sprains in weeks 6 and 15. In that time he ran the ball 104 times for 521 yards and 2 TDs, he also pulled in 16 balls on 19 targets and 1 TD. Raheem was a solid runner while on the field amassing 5 YPA. The key thing is the 8 missed games due to injury, which has been the story of the 29-year-olds career. Mostert has never been able to stay healthy and has gotten him on a short leash. The 49ers organization spent a 3rd round pick on ex Ohio state running back Trey Sermon who is favored to take over sooner rather than later this season. There’s a chance Raheem can fend off Sermon but it’s a very big gamble, one that I don’t see paying off.

Melvin Gordon – ADP 69, RB30

The Denver Broncos signed Gordon to a two-year, $16 million dollar contract last year, and moved on from Phillip Linsday this year. Although these two things make Gordon sound more appealing the organization also brought in a young stud RB in Javonte Williams. You would think a Big new contract would equal workload but last year that wasn’t the case. In 15 games Gordon rushed 215 times just missing the 1,000-yard mark while gathering 9 TDs, through the air Melvin was targeted 44 times and caught 32 for 158 yards and a TD. Phillip Lindsay stole 118 carries last year for 500 yards and a TD. It’s thought that Gordon will fill more of Lindsay’s old role this year with Williams taking the heavier side of the work.

James Robinson ADP 70, RB 31

This is a tough one because James Robinson has done everything right. He seized his opportunity last year with the Jags and absolutely delivered, if you had him on your fantasy team last year there’s a good chance you won a championship. The problem is that nothing is guaranteed this year for Robinson, with the arrival of Urban Myer and Trevor Lawrence the offense is going to play completely different. Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were added because Myer wanted to “add depth” to the position. Etienne is being looked at as a big breakout back this season which is forcing Robinsons ADP down in a big way. Last year Robinson took 87% of the carries last year, opportunity that’s unheard of in today’s game. He played 14 games last season and with that opportunity, he rushed 240 times for 1070 yards and 7 TDs and caught the ball 49 times on 60 targets for 3 TDs. Even with Etienne and Hyde being in the mix Robinson may not be a bad pickup at this price.

Michael Carter ADP 71, RB 32

One of the most exciting rookie running backs this year is Michael Carter. This guy has a Ton of upside and could have a huge breakout year. The Jets offense may not be the steaming pile that we’ve seen in recent years now that Adam Gase is out. Currently, he’s projected to have 154 carries for 645 yards and 3 touchdowns with 31 receptions and a receiving TD. The only man standing in Carter’s way is banged up Tevin Coleman who has missed a lot of time in the last two seasons. Carter has a ton of upside and is being looked at as the primary option in the offense. If he continues to impress at camp, he could be a great late-round value this year.